# Climate change and the northern lights > Chapter 3 of the northern lights course: climate change does not change the Sun or the aurora, but it changes the sky, the season and the trip. Sourced. Canonical: https://kpforecast.com/northern-lights-course/climate-change/ Updated on: 2026-10-09 Chapter 3 of the northern lights course. A fair question after two storm-filled years: is the aurora getting stronger because the climate is changing? No. But climate change does reach the aurora trip from three other directions, and the chapter takes them one by one. ## In short Climate change does not change the northern lights themselves: the aurora is driven by the Sun's 11-year cycle and by Earth's magnetic field, neither of which depends on greenhouse gases. What climate change does change is the viewing: the Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, which affects cloud, snow and the season, and NASA satellites show the upper atmosphere cooling and contracting, a change measured by instruments rather than seen by the eye. ## Key points - The aurora's engine is the Sun and the magnetic field, not the climate - The strong storms of 2024 and 2025 are Solar Cycle 25 near its maximum, not warming - The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 (Rantanen et al. 2022) - Warmer Arctic winters change cloud, snow and the ground under an aurora trip - NASA measures the upper atmosphere cooling and contracting, an effect for satellites, not for the eye ## What climate change does not change: the engine The aurora needs three things, and none of them is weather. Electrons from the solar wind, Earth's magnetic field to guide them, and oxygen and nitrogen 80 to 500 km up to glow. NOAA describes that chain on its aurora page. The amount of energy arriving depends on the Sun's activity, which rises and falls over an 11-year cycle, and the current cycle, number 25, reached its maximum around 2024 to 2025 according to NOAA's solar cycle progression. That maximum, not a warming planet, is why Spain saw the aurora three times in eighteen months. Greenhouse gases work in the lowest few kilometres of the atmosphere, where the air is dense enough to trap heat. They do not touch the solar wind, the magnetosphere or the magnetic poles. So the honest answer to the question in the lead is a plain no: climate change neither strengthens nor weakens the aurora, and a strong storm year is not a climate signal. ## Frequently asked questions ### Does climate change make the northern lights stronger or weaker? Neither. The aurora is driven by the solar wind and Earth's magnetic field, and the amount of energy follows the Sun's 11-year cycle, which NOAA tracks. Greenhouse gases act in the lowest kilometres of the atmosphere and do not touch that chain. The strong storms of 2024 and 2025 are Solar Cycle 25 near its maximum. ### Will climate change make the northern lights visible further south? No. How far south the aurora reaches depends on the Kp index, which depends on the Sun, not on temperature. Spain saw the aurora in May 2024, October 2024 and November 2025 because of storms at Kp 8 to 9 during a solar maximum, and that would have happened in a cooler climate too. ### How does climate change affect a northern lights trip? Through the sky and the ground. The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, according to Rantanen et al. 2022, which changes cloud, snow and the length of the cold season. Dark nights do not change, because they depend on latitude. The practical answer is to book for darkness and a flexible policy, not for snow. ### Does climate change in the Arctic mean more clouds during the northern lights season? The direction is plausible, because open water and warmer air carry more moisture, but how much cloud changes and where varies by region and season and is an active research question. This course states the direction and not a number, and the cloud forecast for the actual nights remains the figure that matters. ### Is the upper atmosphere where the northern lights form affected by climate change? Yes, in a measured way. NASA reports from satellites that the summer mesosphere over the poles is cooling by four to five degrees Fahrenheit and contracting by 500 to 650 feet per decade, with the effect reaching the layers where satellites orbit. No published measurement reports a visible change in the aurora from this, so the known effect is on satellite drag, not on the view. ### Why did the northern lights appear so often in 2024 and 2025 if not because of climate change? Because Solar Cycle 25 reached its maximum around 2024 to 2025, according to NOAA's solar cycle progression. Near a maximum, coronal mass ejections and strong geomagnetic storms are more frequent, and the storm of 10 to 11 May 2024 was the strongest in two decades. That is solar activity, which is independent of Earth's climate. ## Sources - [NOAA SWPC, Solar cycle progression](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression), checked on 2026-10-09 - [Rantanen et al. 2022, The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Communications Earth and Environment](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00498-3), checked on 2026-10-09 - [NASA, satellites see upper atmosphere cooling and contracting due to climate change](https://www.nasa.gov/general/nasa-satellites-see-upper-atmosphere-cooling-and-contracting-due-to-climate-change/), checked on 2026-10-09 - [NOAA SWPC, Aurora](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/aurora), checked on 2026-10-09 - [NASA, what NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years](https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/heliophysics/what-nasa-is-learning-from-the-biggest-geomagnetic-storm-in-20-years/), checked on 2026-10-09 - [NOAA, Arctic Report Card](https://arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/), checked on 2026-10-09