Live aurora forecast
Northern lights in Churchill tonight and this season
Aurora probability over Churchill right now from NOAA, the Kp index the city needs by geomagnetic latitude, the nights that get dark enough, calculated from the sun, and whether any guided tour passes the catalogue filter.
In short
Northern lights in Churchill do not wait for a storm: the city sits at 67.1° N geomagnetic latitude, inside the auroral oval already at Kp 0, where NOAA's rule of thumb puts the oval's equatorward edge at about 66°. Any Kp is enough with a dark, clear sky, and the cards on this site use Kp 1, the lowest value they show. Fully dark nights in Churchill (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 18 August to 24 April. No guided aurora tour from Churchill passes the catalogue filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet. The aurora probability over the city right now, from NOAA's OVATION model, is on this page and refreshes every 15 minutes.
Key points
- Churchill sits inside the auroral oval already at Kp 0 (67.1° N geomagnetic): any Kp with a dark sky, Kp 1 on the cards
- Fully dark nights in Churchill (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 18 August to 24 April.
- Aurora probability over Churchill from NOAA OVATION, refreshed every 15 minutes with the fetch time shown
- No guided aurora tour in the catalogue passes the filter yet
- Kp forecast for the next 3 days in 3-hour slots, and the other places in Canada for comparison
On this page
1Aurora over Churchill right now
Data: NOAA SWPC, fetched 15:06 UTC. Aurora probability by destination from the NOAA OVATION model, forecast for 9 Oct, 16:06 UTC. Aurora also needs a dark and clear sky. Kp needed: NOAA puts the edge of the auroral oval at about 66° geomagnetic latitude for Kp 0, 2° closer to the equator per Kp level. Geomagnetic latitude from the WMM2025 dipole pole (NOAA NCEI).
2The Kp index Churchill needs
Churchill lies at 58.8° N, which is 67.1° N geomagnetic latitude on the WMM2025 dipole. NOAA's viewing tips put the edge of the auroral oval at about 66° geomagnetic for Kp 0 and move it about 2° closer to the equator with each Kp level, down to 48° at Kp 9. At 67.1° N Churchill is inside the oval before any storm begins, so the cards on this site use Kp 1, the lowest value they show. NOAA also notes that aurora can often be observed hundreds of kilometres equatorward of the oval's edge, so a bright display can show low on the northern horizon one Kp level earlier.
3Kp forecast for the next 3 days
| UTC | Fri 9 Oct | Sat 10 Oct | Sun 11 Oct | Mon 12 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03 | 4.00 | 4.67 G1 | 3.00 | |
| 03-06 | 3.67 | 5.67 G2 | ||
| 06-09 | 3.00 | 4.33 | ||
| 09-12 | 3.00 | 3.00 | ||
| 12-15 | 1.67 | 2.67 | ||
| 15-18 | 5.00 G1 | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| 18-21 | 6.00 G2 | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| 21-00 | 5.67 G2 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
Data: NOAA SWPC. Slots before now are NOAA estimates, the rest are predicted values.
4When the sky over Churchill is dark enough
The aurora needs a dark sky as much as it needs Kp, and darkness is a matter of latitude and date. Fully dark nights in Churchill (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 18 August to 24 April. From 17 May to 26 July the sky never gets darker than nautical twilight, so only a strong display shows, low on the horizon. Dates are an own calculation from the sun's declination for the latitude of Churchill, with the US Naval Observatory definitions of twilight, and can be a day off at the edges. Clouds and moonlight are the other half of the question: the home page shows the moon phase for each of the next 27 days.
5Why Canada for the northern lights
Canada has three different aurora bases. Yellowknife on Great Slave Lake is flat, dry and directly under the oval, which is why it markets itself as the aurora capital of North America. Whitehorse in the Yukon is milder and easier to reach from Vancouver, and Churchill on Hudson Bay combines the lights with polar bears in autumn and a February to March aurora season.
6Churchill compared with the other places in Canada
The table ranks the 3 places in Canada on this site by the Kp they need. Yellowknife and Churchill share the lowest figure, Kp 1.
| Place | Latitude | Geomagnetic | Kp needed | Tours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellowknife | 62.5° N | 68.5° N | 1 | 8 |
| Churchill | 58.8° N | 67.1° N | 1 | 0 |
| Whitehorse | 60.7° N | 63.8° N | 2 | 3 |
7Northern lights tours in Churchill
No guided aurora tour from Churchill passes the catalogue filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet. The aurora probability above does not depend on tours: a dark spot outside the lights of the town is the first thing to find.
| Fact | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Coordinates | 58.8° N, 94.2° W | site destination list |
| Geomagnetic latitude | 67.1° N (WMM2025) | NOAA NCEI, own calculation |
| Kp needed | any, Kp 1 on the cards | NOAA rule of thumb |
| Fully dark nights | 18 August to 24 April | own calculation (Meeus), USNO definitions |
| Too bright for faint aurora | 17 May to 26 July | own calculation (Meeus), USNO definitions |
| Tours that pass the filter | none yet, counted 9 Oct 2026 | booking catalogue |
Source: NOAA NCEI, World Magnetic Model 2025, geomagnetic pole, checked on 9 Oct 2026.
Latest northern lights posts
Frequently asked questions
What Kp index do you need to see the northern lights in Churchill?
Any Kp with a dark, clear sky. Churchill sits at 67.1° N geomagnetic latitude, inside the auroral oval already at Kp 0 by NOAA's rule of thumb, which puts the oval's edge at about 66°. The cards on this site use Kp 1, the lowest value they show.
When is the best time to see the northern lights in Churchill?
Fully dark nights in Churchill (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 18 August to 24 April. The darkest skies of the month are the 5 nights around the new moon. The home page shows the moon for each of the next 27 days.
Can you see the northern lights in Churchill in summer?
From 17 May to 26 July the sky never gets darker than nautical twilight, so only a strong display shows, low on the horizon.
How many northern lights tours are there in Churchill?
None in the catalogue passes the filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet, so this page shows the probability and the Kp needed for Churchill without tours.
Is Churchill the best place in Canada for the northern lights?
By Kp needed Churchill shares the lowest figure in Canada, Kp 1, with Yellowknife. Clouds and light decide the rest.
Why does the Churchill aurora probability on this page change?
It comes from NOAA's OVATION model, a forecast for the next 30 to 90 minutes, which this site re-reads at most every 15 minutes. The Kp needed, 1, does not change: it is geography.
Sources (4)
Sources
- NOAA SWPC, tips on viewing the aurora, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- NOAA NCEI, World Magnetic Model 2025, geomagnetic pole, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- NOAA SWPC, OVATION aurora forecast model, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- US Naval Observatory, rise, set and twilight definitions, checked on 9 Oct 2026
Written and maintained by the Kp Forecast editorial team. Independent site, not a space weather agency. Data: NOAA SWPC.
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