Live aurora forecast
Southern lights in Dunedin tonight and this season
Aurora probability over Dunedin right now from NOAA, the Kp index the city needs by geomagnetic latitude, the nights that get dark enough, calculated from the sun, and whether any guided tour passes the catalogue filter.
In short
Southern lights in Dunedin need a Kp index of 9, the top of the scale, because the city sits at 49.3° S geomagnetic latitude and NOAA's rule of thumb puts the edge of the auroral oval at about 66° for Kp 0, 2° closer to the equator per Kp level. The sky over Dunedin gets fully dark every night of the year, so the season is set by the Kp, not by the calendar. No guided aurora tour from Dunedin passes the catalogue filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet. The aurora probability over the city right now, from NOAA's OVATION model, is on this page and refreshes every 15 minutes.
Key points
- Kp needed in Dunedin: 9, the top of the scale, from 49.3° S geomagnetic latitude (WMM2025 dipole)
- The sky over Dunedin gets fully dark every night of the year, so the season is set by the Kp, not by the calendar.
- Aurora probability over Dunedin from NOAA OVATION, refreshed every 15 minutes with the fetch time shown
- No guided aurora tour in the catalogue passes the filter yet
- Kp forecast for the next 3 days in 3-hour slots, and the other places in New Zealand for comparison
On this page
1Aurora over Dunedin right now
Data: NOAA SWPC, fetched 13:17 UTC. Aurora probability by destination from the NOAA OVATION model, forecast for 9 Oct, 14:19 UTC. Aurora also needs a dark and clear sky. Kp needed: NOAA puts the edge of the auroral oval at about 66° geomagnetic latitude for Kp 0, 2° closer to the equator per Kp level. Geomagnetic latitude from the WMM2025 dipole pole (NOAA NCEI).
2The Kp index Dunedin needs
Dunedin lies at 45.9° S, which is 49.3° S geomagnetic latitude on the WMM2025 dipole. NOAA's viewing tips put the edge of the auroral oval at about 66° geomagnetic for Kp 0 and move it about 2° closer to the equator with each Kp level, down to 48° at Kp 9. So the oval reaches Dunedin from Kp 9, the threshold the cards on this site compare with the Kp measured right now. NOAA also notes that aurora can often be observed hundreds of kilometres equatorward of the oval's edge, so a bright display can show low on the southern horizon one Kp level earlier.
3Kp forecast for the next 3 days
| UTC | Fri 9 Oct | Sat 10 Oct | Sun 11 Oct | Mon 12 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03 | 4.00 | 4.67 G1 | 3.00 | |
| 03-06 | 3.67 | 5.67 G2 | ||
| 06-09 | 3.00 | 4.33 | ||
| 09-12 | 3.00 | 3.00 | ||
| 12-15 | 4.67 G1 | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| 15-18 | 5.00 G1 | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| 18-21 | 6.00 G2 | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| 21-00 | 5.67 G2 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
Data: NOAA SWPC. Slots before now are NOAA estimates, the rest are predicted values.
4When the sky over Dunedin is dark enough
The aurora needs a dark sky as much as it needs Kp, and darkness is a matter of latitude and date. The sky over Dunedin gets fully dark every night of the year, so the season is set by the Kp, not by the calendar. Dates are an own calculation from the sun's declination for the latitude of Dunedin, with the US Naval Observatory definitions of twilight, and can be a day off at the edges. Clouds and moonlight are the other half of the question: the home page shows the moon phase for each of the next 27 days.
5Why New Zealand for the southern lights
The South Island is the best place in the Pacific for the southern lights. Stewart Island, Rakiura in Māori, has been an International Dark Sky Sanctuary since 2019, Dunedin has beaches that face due south, and Queenstown has the flights and a few tours. The Kp figures on this page are conservative for the same reason as Tasmania: the oval's edge is soft.
6Dunedin compared with the other places in New Zealand
The table ranks the 3 places in New Zealand on this site by the Kp they need. Stewart Island is the best placed with Kp 8.
| Place | Latitude | Geomagnetic | Kp needed | Tours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Island | 46.9° S | 50.7° S | 8 | 0 |
| Dunedin | 45.9° S | 49.3° S | 9 | 0 |
| Queenstown | 45.0° S | 48.8° S | 9 | 0 |
7Southern lights tours in Dunedin
No guided aurora tour from Dunedin passes the catalogue filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet. The aurora probability above does not depend on tours: a dark spot outside the lights of the town is the first thing to find.
| Fact | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Coordinates | 45.9° S, 170.5° E | site destination list |
| Geomagnetic latitude | 49.3° S (WMM2025) | NOAA NCEI, own calculation |
| Kp needed | 9 | NOAA rule of thumb |
| Fully dark nights | every night of the year | own calculation (Meeus), USNO definitions |
| Tours that pass the filter | none yet, counted 9 Oct 2026 | booking catalogue |
Source: NOAA NCEI, World Magnetic Model 2025, geomagnetic pole, checked on 9 Oct 2026.
Latest northern lights posts
Frequently asked questions
What Kp index do you need to see the southern lights in Dunedin?
Kp 9. Dunedin sits at 49.3° S geomagnetic latitude, and NOAA's rule of thumb puts the edge of the auroral oval there from Kp 9. A brighter display can show low on the southern horizon one level earlier.
When is the best time to see the southern lights in Dunedin?
The sky over Dunedin gets fully dark every night of the year, so the season is set by the Kp, not by the calendar. The darkest skies of the month are the 5 nights around the new moon. The home page shows the moon for each of the next 27 days.
Can you see the southern lights in Dunedin in summer?
Yes, the sky over Dunedin gets dark enough every night of the year, so summer only shortens the window of darkness and Kp 9 is the real condition.
How many southern lights tours are there in Dunedin?
None in the catalogue passes the filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet, so this page shows the probability and the Kp needed for Dunedin without tours.
Is Dunedin the best place in New Zealand for the southern lights?
By Kp needed, Stewart Island is the best placed in New Zealand with Kp 8, and Dunedin needs Kp 9.
Why does the Dunedin aurora probability on this page change?
It comes from NOAA's OVATION model, a forecast for the next 30 to 90 minutes, which this site re-reads at most every 15 minutes. The Kp needed, 9, does not change: it is geography.
Sources (4)
Sources
- NOAA SWPC, tips on viewing the aurora, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- NOAA NCEI, World Magnetic Model 2025, geomagnetic pole, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- NOAA SWPC, OVATION aurora forecast model, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- US Naval Observatory, rise, set and twilight definitions, checked on 9 Oct 2026
Written and maintained by the Kp Forecast editorial team. Independent site, not a space weather agency. Data: NOAA SWPC.
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