Live aurora forecast
Southern lights in Stanley tonight and this season
Aurora probability over Stanley right now from NOAA, the Kp index the city needs by geomagnetic latitude, the nights that get dark enough, calculated from the sun, and whether any guided tour passes the catalogue filter.
In short
Southern lights in Stanley are rare: the city sits at 42.8° S geomagnetic latitude and NOAA's rule of thumb stops at 48° for Kp 9, 5.2° short of the city. The aurora reaches here only in the strongest storms, low on the southern horizon on nights at the level of 10 to 11 May 2024, the strongest storm in two decades. Fully dark nights in Stanley (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 19 January to 22 November. No guided aurora tour from Stanley passes the catalogue filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet. The aurora probability over the city right now, from NOAA's OVATION model, is on this page and refreshes every 15 minutes.
Key points
- Stanley at 42.8° S geomagnetic lies 5.2° beyond NOAA's Kp 9 line: aurora only in the strongest storms
- Fully dark nights in Stanley (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 19 January to 22 November.
- Aurora probability over Stanley from NOAA OVATION, refreshed every 15 minutes with the fetch time shown
- No guided aurora tour in the catalogue passes the filter yet
- Kp forecast for the next 3 days in 3-hour slots, from NOAA SWPC
On this page
1Aurora over Stanley right now
Data: NOAA SWPC, fetched 13:17 UTC. Aurora probability by destination from the NOAA OVATION model, forecast for 9 Oct, 14:19 UTC. Aurora also needs a dark and clear sky. Kp needed: NOAA puts the edge of the auroral oval at about 66° geomagnetic latitude for Kp 0, 2° closer to the equator per Kp level. Geomagnetic latitude from the WMM2025 dipole pole (NOAA NCEI).
2The Kp index Stanley needs
Stanley lies at 51.7° S, which is 42.8° S geomagnetic latitude on the WMM2025 dipole. NOAA's viewing tips put the edge of the auroral oval at about 66° geomagnetic for Kp 0 and move it about 2° closer to the equator with each Kp level, down to 48° at Kp 9. At 42.8° S Stanley lies 5.2° beyond the reach of that rule even at Kp 9, so the cards on this site show Kp 9 and the aurora is a rare event here, seen low on the southern horizon in the strongest storms on nights at the level of 10 to 11 May 2024, the strongest storm in two decades. NOAA also notes that aurora can often be observed hundreds of kilometres equatorward of the oval's edge, so a bright display can show low on the southern horizon one Kp level earlier.
3Kp forecast for the next 3 days
| UTC | Fri 9 Oct | Sat 10 Oct | Sun 11 Oct | Mon 12 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03 | 4.00 | 4.67 G1 | 3.00 | |
| 03-06 | 3.67 | 5.67 G2 | ||
| 06-09 | 3.00 | 4.33 | ||
| 09-12 | 3.00 | 3.00 | ||
| 12-15 | 4.67 G1 | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| 15-18 | 5.00 G1 | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| 18-21 | 6.00 G2 | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| 21-00 | 5.67 G2 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
Data: NOAA SWPC. Slots before now are NOAA estimates, the rest are predicted values.
4When the sky over Stanley is dark enough
The aurora needs a dark sky as much as it needs Kp, and darkness is a matter of latitude and date. Fully dark nights in Stanley (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 19 January to 22 November. Dates are an own calculation from the sun's declination for the latitude of Stanley, with the US Naval Observatory definitions of twilight, and can be a day off at the edges. Clouds and moonlight are the other half of the question: the home page shows the moon phase for each of the next 27 days.
5Why Falkland Islands for the southern lights
Stanley sits at 52° south in the South Atlantic with very little light pollution and a sky that opens between the fronts. As in Patagonia, the southern lights need a severe storm to reach this latitude, and the figure on this page is the conservative NOAA rule.
6Stanley on the Kp scale
Stanley is the only place in Falkland Islands on this site. The Locations page ranks all 33 destinations by the Kp they need, from Kp 1 inside the auroral zone to Kp 9 at the edge of NOAA's rule.
7Southern lights tours in Stanley
No guided aurora tour from Stanley passes the catalogue filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet. The aurora probability above does not depend on tours: a dark spot outside the lights of the town is the first thing to find.
| Fact | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Coordinates | 51.7° S, 57.9° W | site destination list |
| Geomagnetic latitude | 42.8° S (WMM2025) | NOAA NCEI, own calculation |
| Kp needed | 9, strongest storms only | NOAA rule of thumb |
| Fully dark nights | 19 January to 22 November | own calculation (Meeus), USNO definitions |
| Tours that pass the filter | none yet, counted 9 Oct 2026 | booking catalogue |
Source: NOAA NCEI, World Magnetic Model 2025, geomagnetic pole, checked on 9 Oct 2026.
Latest northern lights posts
Frequently asked questions
What Kp index do you need to see the southern lights in Stanley?
Kp 9, and only in the strongest storms. NOAA's rule of thumb stops at 48° geomagnetic for Kp 9 and Stanley sits at 42.8° S, 5.2° beyond it, so the aurora shows here low on the southern horizon on nights at the level of 10 to 11 May 2024, the strongest storm in two decades.
When is the best time to see the southern lights in Stanley?
Fully dark nights in Stanley (sun 18° below the horizon) run from 19 January to 22 November. The darkest skies of the month are the 5 nights around the new moon. The home page shows the moon for each of the next 27 days.
Can you see the southern lights in Stanley in summer?
Yes, the sky over Stanley gets dark enough every night of the year, so summer only shortens the window of darkness and a storm at Kp 9 is the real condition.
How many southern lights tours are there in Stanley?
None in the catalogue passes the filter of 4.3 stars and 20 reviews yet, so this page shows the probability and the Kp needed for Stanley without tours.
How does Stanley compare with other southern lights destinations?
Stanley is the only place in Falkland Islands on this site and needs Kp 9, and only in the strongest storms. The Locations page ranks all 33 destinations by the Kp they need, from Kp 1 inside the auroral zone to Kp 9 at the edge of NOAA's rule.
Why does the Stanley aurora probability on this page change?
It comes from NOAA's OVATION model, a forecast for the next 30 to 90 minutes, which this site re-reads at most every 15 minutes. The Kp needed, 9, does not change: it is geography.
Sources (5)
Sources
- NOAA SWPC, tips on viewing the aurora, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- NOAA NCEI, World Magnetic Model 2025, geomagnetic pole, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- NOAA SWPC, OVATION aurora forecast model, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- US Naval Observatory, rise, set and twilight definitions, checked on 9 Oct 2026
- NASA, what NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years, checked on 9 Oct 2026
Written and maintained by the Kp Forecast editorial team. Independent site, not a space weather agency. Data: NOAA SWPC.
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